Published
‘Potential Surprise Theory’ (PST) contains much that can lend theoretical support to scenario planning - especially its use of plausibility rather than probability, and its focus on potential extreme outcomes.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162516300671
https://www.peri.umass.edu/fileadmin/pdf/conference_papers/newschool/Papaer_GLS_Shackle_Studentship.pdf
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162516300671
https://www.peri.umass.edu/fileadmin/pdf/conference_papers/newschool/Papaer_GLS_Shackle_Studentship.pdf
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